Growth and productivity in America will continue to remain stable varying between 2.8 to 3 percent, for the next ten years. The economic forecast for the next ten years looks promising. World productivity remain positive and no significant deterents are preventing a sustained growth pattern.
America will remain the richest country in the world. China will represent largest percent of GNP over the next few year. The American trade deficit will increase between China and America.
More multinational companies will rush to china more interested by the marketing opportunities than barriers of a communistic government. With over 1.2 billion consumers and producers, the desire to capture a portion of this market, by foreign investors will remain high. More joint ventures will be formed reducing confusion about entry into the Chinese market. The Chinese trade deficit will increase in size. China is actively campaigning to join the World Trade Organization. It is unlikely China continue double digit growth. China expects to increase spending on infrastructure, such as, roads, highways, sewers, power plants, and dams. China was touched by the asian financial crisis. The asian financial crisis may reduce the amount of foreign investment pouring into china.
Military pressure from China will remain a world concern. China's military size and capability is a concern.
India is similar to china, touting the second largest population, in the world. India experienced a 5 to 8 percent growth rate, in their economy, as foreign investment(heavily American) increased during the 90s. India has a strong base of knowlege workers. India has the second largest work force of scientist, engineers, technicians, and computer graduates. India increases in computer software sales and services will remain strong. America will remain the creative leader of software; the coding of software will be done in developing nations. India is well positioned to be selected candidate.
Nuclear threats between Pakastan and India will alarm the world and will keep tensions high. There could be warfare between India and China. Pressure will continue to mount for India to sign the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban 1996 and force the halting the deployment of nuclear weapons.
Latin America will experience significant change. First, free enterprise and free trade will extend through the Western Hemisphere. Second, Mexico and Brazil will become strong economic partners in the world economy. Third, Cuba will make steps towards capitalism.
There will be a trend toward less American reliance on OPEC oil with most of the oil coming from Venezuela. Venezuela will continue be one of the top petroleum trading nations. Oil production is stepping up to make Venzuela a stronger force in supply.
The number of manufacturers will decrease. Labor will become more difficult to find for vacant manufacturing jobs. Robotics and technology will increase manufacturing productivity. Artifical intelligence will find more practical applications to increase operational efficiency.
More business to business networks will be utilized to reduce manufacturing cost. Intelligent agents will seek out the best price, best quality, and availability scenerios. Supply chain software will reduce raw material cost and help identify bargins. As a result more globalization and exchange between countries will take place.
Unions will continue to diminish in size.
Recession will remain soft and interest rates - low. The US has created less reliance on OPEC oil since the 70s. Without the 70s, 10 fold increases in oil prices, interest rates fluctuation will remain within reasonable ranges. Long term forecasts for deflation scenerio are unlikely. Prices will drop to adjust to supply and demand imbalances, but overall inflation will remain moderate. Supply chain sofware will keep inventories small and allow competitive price bargins to be realized. Just in time inventory management will allow companies to keep less products on hand. There will be a rising share of the economy coming from services. All job growth will be in the services sector. Adjustments in the business cycle may cause sales to become soft. In this case, outsourced services will become more attractive. Outsourcing will reduce operational costs while maintaining service quality. The trend of strong foreign investments will continue to remain strong.
Health care will continue to become more expensive exceeding the velocity of inflation. More companies will elect to use managed care for their employees. Some companies will not offer health care to their employees. New focuses on prevention and wellness will seek to reduce health care costs.
The number of hospitals will reduce. Hospitals will become places for surgery.
Remote diagnose (Telemedicene) will become possible as technology allows doctors to remove patient status electronically. With this technology some of the patients could live at home under electronic survelliance.
Patient charts and records will become digital.
Elder patients can be monitored from their homes by electronic device.
Revolutionary biotechnology will work to reduce diseases, such as cancer and AIDS. Over the next ten years patents, production, and distribution of biotechnology will materialize.
The world agricultural business can produce enough for the whole world. The problem is distribution caused from political and economic barriers. Farmers will continue to improve the effectiveness and efficiency for producing food and fiber. Using biotechnology reduced dependancy on pesticides will reside. Using robots and mechanical machinary more crop cycles can be gained in a given year.
World population is predicted to reach 7.5 billion in the next ten years. American has food production cability to support - double the current American population.
Government support for subsidies will reduce. More global distribution of food and fiber will increase. Better solutions for distribution need to be discovered.
Nuclear energy will become more accepted and represent a larger portion of the available total customer energy.
Solar Energy products will continue to reduce in cost making it an effective technology for energy generation.
Ethenol alcolohol will increase in volume. More corn will be converted into ethenol alocohol. Biotechnology will be used to increase the corn yields.
Pressure for political policy and environmental groups will require more alternative forms of energy for automobiles. One popular alternative is the fuel celled car. The space program has successful used fuel cells. Fuel cell technology has been around for thirty years. A fuel celled car will use gasoline engines to convert hydrogen to electricy. A number of prototype have been built, such as, a fuel celled bus.
The internet will remain strong. A growing number of individuals will using the internet to browse catalogs, avoid conventional shopping patterns, and buy online. Online stores will store in dataware houses consumer preference, sales ads, and consumer information used to make a sale by targeted advertising. Retailers will use the internet to go global, support various languages and cultural content.
New homes owners will experience and increase in growth.
Banks will remain fragmented. Large bank consolidation is unlikely. Because of the large number of banks both commerical and private; it is unlikely they will consolidate. Credit Unions will continue to capture a larger share of the financial services sector, offering free or lower rates than banks and more convenient services. Electronic payment will continue to increase in usage and be a popular method for paying bills. Smart cards will increase in usage and application. The internet will turn financial services into a commodity.
Financial companies will offer consumers more credit. Customers will select interest free credit for a grace period. Financing companies will seek to shorten the grace period.
Large companies will specialize and sell off portions of the company not meeting their mission or focus. The rate inwhich mergers occurred during the 90s is unlikely over the next ten years. Large companies will start focusing on their strengths and abanding and selling off portions of their company not representing their strengths.
Israel will remain a hot spot of military action and there will constant conflict against palestine. Palestine will strive for an independant nation status. The world will encourage peace between Israel and Palestine.
The public school systems will experience radical change. Private and home schools will boom. Voucher programs to support private schools funding will become popular. Higher education will experience change. Smaller architectures will reduce cost. More classes will be completed over the internet. Education specialization may be deferred until graduate studies or doctorial studies.
Business will reduce the cost of office space. Large percents of employees will work at home, and commute occasionally to the office. Office cubicles will be available to connect laptops and other electronic devices to the network. All files and personal information will be stored by the office manager.
Women will experience more career upward mobility and higher standards of life. This trend will be the result of more higher education, high paying career positions, and less dependence on a male provider. The trend will be towards smaller families, more single head of household families, and less population replacement percentages.