50 years of wars is not accurate. The modern political and economic powers have been fighting, continually, for 100 years, through ethnic conflict. It is during period of high economic volatility that politically dominant groups transfer the cost of warfare and social programs onto the working class and class division forms. More middle class individuals move into poverty, while more middle class wealth transfers to thee top. As a result, high economic volatility generations inflation approaching 8 percent and growth approaching 8 percent. The combination of high inflation and high growth increased violence between the classes and ethnic groups. In my opinion, the US inflation rate moves with China at 6-7 percent. Therefore, US hegemony sustains the dollar and makes their military stronger than all other sovereign military powers combined. The US high tech war machine is getting stronger while the rest of the world militaries are getting weaker. The exporting of inflation to countries in the Middle East increases the percentage of income for food. Civil unrest increases as the poor protest the rising costs of survival. Violence is met with violence. the next generation of high tech war machinery is more destructive and widespread. The violence by the empire is used to maintain dominance.
Empire spans have decreased in life. The Japanese empire was significantly shorter than the Roman Empire that lasted nearly 2 millennium or the Ming Empire which lasted 300 years. Empires are too expensive and dangerous to maintain long term. The power of the individual has increased and the threat of empires is not tolerate. People want to live by the rule of law.
Empires use war to steal gold or take gold back as collateral repossessions for debts they are collecting. The Ottomon empire lasted 500 years after the Roman empire. The Nazi empire attempted to recreate the Roman empire but the world recognized the archtyrant plot and stopped it. The empire lasted less than fifty years. The Root cause of the defeat was the US economic growth and machinery inflicted punishment of an unmeasurable degree on the empires of Japan and Germany. The free countries held in check the evil empire from spreading across the global.
Empires improve trade through economies of scale. However, tributory system function like a tax with goods and services limited to an exclusive few. The Ming empire lasted for 300 years. The Ming empire traded goods through a tributary system with nations around the global. Its large merchant ships were four times the size of the European ships and goods from Africa were imported to Europe. Likewise, the Roman empire was importing copper and furs from America. The trade routes seized after the Carthage and Roman wars started. An empire can not continue to trade during periods of high economic volatility. Economic volatility is defined as rising prices, growths rates, interest rates, and unemployment rates.
During period of high economic volatility there will be an associated increased level of socio-political stresses and escalating violence. The Middle East Kingdom trades oil with Japan and China and the US. Secretly, China and Iran trade oil. China imports oil from Canada and Angola and Brazil. Middle East oil trades in dollars. The petro-dollar trade support US consumer debt and buying. The currency wars have put the yuan in contention with thee dollar. China is increasing trade in the yuan. Over hundred countries have agreed to trade goods in the yuan. China is preparing to introduce a gold back yuan. Reserve banks, the financial mechanism that spread commerce throughout the world, hold an increasing amounts of yuan and dim sum bonds. Empires use resources to gain gold in their reserves.
China has modernized itself and increased production. Beginning in the 90s, Japan foreign investment flooded US stock market and real estate creating a boom. Japan, at the beginning of the 20th century diverted foreign investment to China. Asia did not want to replica the Western empires and the Western empire did not want to give up dominance. Therefore, China maintains a commerce based authoritative system of governance. China economy has been slowing but inflation continues to make goods expensive. Hot money has been fleeing China returning back to safe haven bonds. As China gains more of the reserve currency through interchangeable exchanges in Singapore and Hong Kong, the currency will be more widely accepted. Since Gold and silver are the king currencies, a gold back currency will seem to be more value than a fiat currency. Depression economic will drive China to accelerate its new currency adoption. China will offer twice the gold price paid in dollars for gold. The critical benchmark is 10,000 tons of gold. If inflation rises and growth rise than war in the Middle East must be the future.
Economic volatility increases when taxes increase, deficit spending becomes out of control, and trade barriers increase. The US deficit exceeds $17 trillion. Payroll taxes must reach 35% to pay for social entitlements and interest rate payments. Trade is not fair as legislated by NAFTA giving Mexico an unfair advantage on exports. Planned economies fail to provide wealth that free markets can create.
The Resource wars can not last, forever. The high price of oil has caused Shale oil too boom. As a result, the price of oil drop below $50 a barrel. The falling oil prices have strangled Russian oil profits. The Russia expansion into Ukraine and the expanding of their empire is not sustainable, long term. Therefore, Russia will continue to expand into Poland, Lithuania, Lativa, Estonia, Finland, and Germany. Poland wants it sovereignty having been invaded by four empires. The Balkans is a area of conflict between four sovereign nations over control of the Balkan sea. The area is contested for oil drilling rights and oil pipeline passage rights. Historically the realms of Hohezollerns, Habsburgs, Romanovs, and Ottomans meet at the Balkans.
War occurs at the beginning and end of the empires. Empires are ruthless. They are will to make war on whole categories of people. They are characterized as centralized, economically and financially wide spread, and similar social ideology. The have a large mass of people at their command. Empires use force to gain conformity.
The World world has small ethnic differences that are amplified and polarized by political groups that have access to industrial and military resources of a nation. Germany is Russia number one, trade partner, yet the Russian empire is no friend to Germany. During World War II Germany attempted to conquer and dominated Germany. Today, the Russian empire will then provide oil and natural gas resources to its conquered countries, including Germany. Russia is believed to hold 20,000 tons of gold. A gold back ruble could b be introduced for countries under control by Russia.
Life span has increased. People are living longer due to health care improvement. Warfare conflicts are shorter as technology increases morality counts. Less children die at birth. Government roles have increased to providing more entitlements and regulating a broad range of areas, such as, food, water, air, safety, and land. two thirds of the labor work for government. Government jobs do not add to production numbers. The government helped build the railroads and they are helping subsidize the hydrogen infrastructure in California. Capitalist provide economies of scale reducing the affects of inflation on consumers. The Welfare states were least involved in the war of 50s, 60s, and 70s.
Economic volatility exacerbates social conflict. Burdens are passed on. Ethnic conflict has increased the violence levels. Ethnic conflict means discontinuities in social relationships between certain ethnic groups. During periods of economic hardship different ethnic groups are denied benefits. During periods of rapid economic growth wealth benefits are not distribute across the working group. Wealth accumulates at the top. United Order systems are better because they distribute wealth according to need and want rather than entitlement. United Order is a more perfect form of capitalism and gifting.
Hereditary principles in theories of racial differences are behind the ethnic conflict. Most Europeans are descendants of farmers that have migrated from the Middle East during earlier times. The Japanese DNA is a combination of Jomon, Yayoi, Ainu, and Samaritans in the 7th century BC. Interracial marriage is a good indication of race acceptance. Mixed race couples between 1900 and 2000 total 1.5 million. People tend to marry within their ethnic group. Anciently cousin-marriages were common among, Jew, Samaritans, and Japanese. People tend to trust people of their own race over other races. American ethnic groups identify themselves as white, African-America, Hispanic, and East Asian. Human Genetic differences are few. Segregation is one method of separating two different ethnic groups. Fighting occurs when one ethnic group attempts expel the other group. Annihilation is a dream of groups during armed conflict of their enemy. There are few ethnic groups, today than in the past. Ethnic groups that are deprived of life, rights, and property and not well armed.
Concentrated areas of people increase the mortality rates in an armed conflict. Citizens without weapons are more likely to be inflicted with violence because they lack deterrence. More people are living in big cities. Urban populations have increased. There is less armed conflict in the last decade. The golden age of peace seems to be possible. Technology gives man more efficient means to kill. In WWII Germany;s invasion of Poland signaled the beginning of a armed conflict. France and Britian opposed the invasion. During WWI half of the causalities were civilians. The Nazi sought to exterminate a variety of social groups and the Russians inflicted violence on minority groups with over 4 million deported to Siberia. In total 21 million died in the ethic and political related warfare. During World War II, the US and Britain bombed cities into rumble.
Japan and North Korea military conflicts will continue to be a tense point. Military campaigns against each other could escalate. Japan and China tensions continue to reaching a boiling point. If war breaks out in this region, Japan could move troops into North Korea. China would support North Korea.