The continued prosperity of the US will depend on the utilization of technology advances in the production of goods and services. The use of robots and computer-aided design and manufacturing system throughout the industries of the US will be an increasing factor in the maintenance of industrial leadership in the world. The US steel production was 26% in 1960 and by 1980 steel production was at 14% while in Japan steel productions was 6.5% in 1960 and increased to 15.5% in 1980. Synthetic fiber has maintained productivity increase commensurate with wage increases, however, most labor productive has decreased in relationship too productivity increases. Productivity in coal mining industry declined while wages increase 10%. The difference between productivity and labor costs are the result of inflated prices and reduced international competitiveness.
In 1952 to 1980 the output per man-hour tended to decline while labor cost per unit increased. The big factor increasing the CPI was the high cost of energy. Japanese compact car assembly is completed in 14 work hour verses 33 hours for a comparable US car. The average Japanese auto worker produces about 50 cars per year compared to about 25 for the US worker. The average Japanese steel worker produces 421 tons versus 250 tons in the US. The Japanese have achieved a total cost advantage of $1,500 to $2,000 a car by 1980. 1960 to 1973, Japan had the highest productivity ratio between capital investment and productivity.
Productivity is influenced by three factors: labor, capital investment, and technology innovation. Investment rates in Japan are 33 percent of GNP and 15% GNP in the US. The US problem is slow adoption of innovation. As firms improve their productivity, they can hope for increased market share, improved worker satisfaction, improved consumer satisfaction and community relations, higher quality of product, reduced pollution, and improved profitability.
The US is increasing its investment in put new automation technology to work. Executive were predicting the US would surpass Japan and Germany in the race to automate by 1990. The US has the “know how” in CAD and CAM technology. US companies are moving toward manufacturing enterprises where computer control results in largely integrative computerized facilities. In 1980s, the US estimated 75% of capital good are produced in batches of 1000 pieces or less. CAD/CAM promises to bring automated batch-production of goods in runs of less than 50 units. CAD/CAM ROI estimates are 25% reduction in lead time and 4X increases in productivity.
Group technology classifies parts into groups with similar shapes or manufacturing processes, the parts can be manufactured in these families rather than individually. This reduces down time for tooling and set-up, and brings the advantage of long term runs producing relatively small lots.
The most advanced equipment is the flexible machining systems (FMS), which contains programmable machine tools and transfer devices to take parts from one tool to another, all under a central computer. In 1980, 80% of the FMS operated in Japan, the US, Russia, and the rest of Europe. The main obstacle has been the large capital investment need to integrate FMS and the relative uncertainty of the world market for the machinery. Japan has 30, half the FMS working in its industries. Of the 13,000 less sophisticated robots, Japan has 6,000 of them. Computer programmed automation of metal-working industry can increase metal cutting from 5% of the time increasing too 70 to 100 percent of the time, leading to a 20 X increase in tool productivity.
FMS is controlled by a three-level hierarchy of computers. The overall control is provided by the “Master Control” minicomputer. The master control monitors the system for any breakdowns of tools, machinery, or transports and alerts the supervisors to any breakdown. The subordinate minicomputer, the direct numerical control (DNC) module, supervises the operation of the machine tools themselves. The DNC computer selects the programs to be carried out the machine tools, and keeps track of the completion for transmittal to the master control. The bottom layer computer control is called the computerized numerical control unit (CNC) attached too the machine tool. The CNC receives the program from the DNC controller and then executes it. The CNC also contains diagnostic programs that can detect mechanical or electronic malfunctions in the machine tool and report them to the central controllers. The main problem for automation has been a weak visual sensory system. Improved VSS means Robots could determine how to assemble different parts based on their 3D shapes.
The Japanese were the first to design and build the metamorphic machine. The metamorphic machine contains modules that can assemble themselves on command into any type of machine tools required for a given part. An automated plant will consist of a small number of metamorphic machines called complex production systems, including a cutting station, a machining station, an assembly station, a laser processing station, and an inspection station. High-powered lasers will be used in cutting, welding, and heat-treating operations.
The cost effectiveness of robots is impressive, with capital recovery through savings in wages in as little as 12 to 18 months and directly increasing productivity. The leading robot application in the US is welding 36%, Loading and Unload 20%, foundry 20%, Painting 13%, Assembly 1%, and other 10%.
Robot sales predicted growth is 10-30 percent in sales of industrial robots. Advances in electronics and computer technology and linux OS technology over the last decade seem to justify the decreasing components and system costs will make their adoption possible. Unemployment in any industry is caused by a decline in competitiveness, if it fails to adopt the technology advanced used by its competitors. Adoption will reduce the displacement of labor. 65% to 75% of manufacturing jobs will eventually be replaced by robots as manual work functions are mechanized. Robots will improve the work condition, reduce physical work, and liberate workers from monotonous and hazardous environments.