John Bogle, one of the brightest minds of our century raises some of the most important financial questions, of the last 50 years. Bogle on Great Ideas in Financing includes four criteria: 1. Simplicity - Buy the whole market haystack, an index capable of matching the market. 2. Focus (Seek the hard crusted but nutritious bagel of earnings, dividends, and interest yields rather than the sweet donut taste of price with its high price earning multiples) 3. Efficiency (minimize frictional costs of fees, commissions, and taxes with an Wilshire 5000 index). 4. Stewardship (keep the interest of the client first). Bogle's index was free of tax, include a small transactional fee, represented 8000 stocks in the market, and matched the market rate of return.

Mutual funds have become a vehicle for short-term speculation, a trend fostered in part by the industries focus on marketing. Today the average fund holds stock for 400 days compared to six years when Bogle graduated from Princeton. Most investors hold their mutual fund for 3 years rather than 15 years. Since 1980 - 2000 mutual fund assets have risen 70 fold from $100 billion to $6.5 trillion and assets of stock funds have risen 120 fold or $4.0 trillion. In a 15-year span there were 426 mutual fund boats and 113 sunken mutual fund boats. Survival was strong because of the generous returns of the market. However, Mutual fund efficiency was problem: 1. Sales tax, excessive fees, spending too much on marketing, failing to share economy of scale with the investors, and 90% turn over of the portfolio each year suggested one thing, "short term speculation" was becoming the norm. Mutual fund sites charge costs included a front-end sales commission of 6%; opportunity cost meaning held cash positions equal to 7% of assets with these asset earning smaller returns than available in stocks; a transactional cost of 1.7%; and operating cost equal to 1.2% per year.

Bogle's outlook of the stock market is brilliant. Bogle states: financial economist cannot predict the future. The DOW may hit 36,000 and it may not. Who can predict accurately what the market will do? The market is not a machine. The market is not an insurance actuaries spreadsheet. However, the market performed remarkable well with price gaining 17% a year and at this rate doubling every four years. To understand the market lets look first too dividend yield and earnings growth because these elements provide the steady underlying force over the long pull. For two decades dividend yield equaled 4.5% and earning growth paced at 5.9% producing a 10.9% return. In 1970, P/E fell 50% from 16 times to 7.3 and dividend yield equaled 3.4% and annual earnings equaled 9.9% producing a 10.4% investment return and Bogle preached "stay the course". By 2000, dividends equaled 1%, earning growth rate reached 8%, and P/E ratios top 30. Again, Bogle preached, "time, risk, and control" raising a cautious outlook and a cry for investors to return back to investor basics of earnings, dividends, and yields.

What were the factors associated with the 87 crash? 1. Stock prices were simply to high to the underlying earnings and dividends in comparison to higher yields available on fixed income securities. 2. Deterioration in economic outlook with no progress to reduce the federal deficit, no improvements in the trade imbalance, and inflation in the air. 3. Program trading in the futures market sparked massive computer driven sales. The impact being 35% of the equity traded out of the market. In 87, if you're a Contrarian, it is a good time to buy or hold.

Thinking about 2000, Bogle observed for growth to remain constant over the next ten years, the P/E ratio would need to move from 30 to 67 an unlikely possibility. If in 2000, the P/E ratio fell too 12 then the market level would be 580 rather than 1400 with a P/E of 30. If the P/E fell from 30 to 20 then market return would drop to 5.5% less than the percentage rate of high yield bonds and such an event would be the first in stock history. Is the market comfort zone, a P/E of 15.5 and this fact suggests the market has moved to a level of high risk and possible correction? Bogle states, "Looking back 70 years, major market highs were almost invariably signaled when the dividends yield on stocks fell below 3%, or price earnings rose much about 20 times earnings". The purpose of any stock investment is cash now with the expectation of future flows of cash. A high P/E ratio means investors are expecting a large flow of future cash. The high prices are based on speculation about the cash flow in the future. If the future cash flow expectations are not rational does this mean short-term profit taking is picking clean the amateur investor?

Bogle was left to reflect on two questions: 1. Will the bagel of investment fundamentals give us its usual sustenance? 2. And will the doughnut of speculation get even sweeter than it is today, or will it finally sour? Bogle concluded, "We are in a new era of investing".

Warren Buffet said, "The art of investing in public companies is ... simply to acquire, at a sensible price a business with excellent economies and able, honest management. Thereafter, you need only monitor whether these qualities are being preserved."

Bogle suggests two principles when dealing with risk 1. Get your asset allocation right, maintaining a long-term horizon, and stay the course. Bogle observed that the long term real return on stock is 7.5%. Assuming one has a million dollars that is $75,000 annual income. 2. Diversity some of the risk away by introducing equities with reliable different correlations with the U.S market. Maybe, we will see the creation of a worldwide index, 60/40 - 60 percent U.S stock and 40 percent other? Bogle stresses investors not too speculate, however, life is short and if one needs too speculate they should limit the amount too 5 percent in the gamble for higher profits. Bogle's is betting on the performance of the whole market index rather than one sector mutual fund. Bogle is saying the market price is too high and a risk at its current levels. Bogle thinks mutual funds should be able to buy bonds and other stable securities as a part of the mutual fund mix.

Thinking about bonds, bond yields drop as the economy moves to a recession because investor flee from stocks into bonds and since money is easy to acquire the rates drop. In this scenerio, short term traders buy bonds now with the anticipation the yields will drop more in the future and investor will pay more for these bonds with a higher yield and again, a short-term speculation to capture a quick profit. However, if haystack of stocks continues producing 7.5% real returns then stay the course.