The US dollar must remain the World Reserve currency. US global dominance is established by military present and securing interests in oil, the dollar as the oil currency, and unlimited constraint for debt creation. The dollar as a world reserve currency is necessary as a mechanism for effortless US credit expansion. The US has $3 trillion of foreign purchased debt and $2 trillion of consumer debt, but the consumer have limits on the total amount of debt they can finance before default.
Monetary maneuvers away from the dollar by the international community indicates a manifest intolerance of a unilateralist US employing military imperialism that seek gain over the world's energy supplies and denies the self determination regarding their chosen oil export currencies. The fact governments around the world are adding Euros to their central bank reserves is indicative that they have lost faith in the dollar and the fiscal policies surrounding debt.
Petrodollars are backed by black gold. WWII war debt of 2,600 tons of Gold caused the collapse of Brent Wood Agreement. The dollar moved off the gold standard and its value traded on the open market. Large international banks: Citibank, Chase Manhatten, Barclay's assumed the role of the central bank with the market forces determining the value of the dollar. Money was a commodity too be bought and sold on the open market. The result of the dollar valuation was inflation and deflation business cycles.
In the 1970s, the growing trade massive trade deficit from the Vietnam War contributed to the devaluation of the dollar; OPEC began discussing the viability of pricing oil trade in several currencies; the Nixon administration began talks with Saudi Arabia to unilaterally price international oil sales in dollars only; in 1974, an agreement was reached with New York and Lond Banks and the arrangement began to be known as "Petrodollar recycling".
The oil price shocks of 1973-74, 79 created enormous demand for the floating dollar. Germany, Argentina, Japan were faced with how to acquire export-based dollars to pay for the expensive new oil import bills. Meanwhile, OPEC was flooded with surplus petrodollars; the power banking interest (US Fed Reserve and the Bank of England) sought too manage the monetary flows from a 400% increase in the price of oil in the Middle East. The banks used the petrodollar surplus by relending the money as Eurobonds to governments of developing countries; these countries were desparate too finance their oil imports, in dollars; and the debt facilitated a crisis, in the 1980s. The dollar became the reserve currency for most nations. The dollar as a world reserve currency gave the Federal Reserve the unparallel ability to create credit. In 1982, Mexico announced it would default on repaying Eurodollar loans. 1979, Paul Volcker and the US Federal Reserve raise rates for 3 years to save the failing dollar. Developing nations were drowning in what they perceived as rather usurious US interest rates on their Petro loan dollar. The IMF imposed draconian debt collection on developing countries forcing them to repay dollar debts, despite social upheavals and lack of funds from domestic growth. In the 1990s, Unified Europe established the European Monetary Union.
Military and Economic dominance. Paul Wolfowiz foreign policy objectives sought for US dominance in the world community. In 1992, the paper was leaked out suggesting no nation should be allow to challenge the hegemony of the US. As a result, gulf regional security became a higher priority and an strong American force transcended the issue of the evil dictator Saadam Hussein. In 1999 the Euro was successfully introduced and the US foreign policy shifted from "soft power" towards "hard power". Hard power meant unbridled unilaterism, military control of the world's energy supplies, enforcing the petrodollar arrangement, and a five year plan of spending $2 trillion through 2009. Iran, Venezuela, Russia, and Saudi Arabia, if moved away from petrodollars would be subject to US antagonism.
Currency risk hedges in favor of the dollar. Currency risk keeps gasoline at $5 a gallon around the world, 60% more than the US. Rising interest rates attract foreign investment increasing the value of dollar denominated securities. Currency exchanges for the Euro and Yen devalue. For example, since Greenspan has began raising interest rates; the dollar has increase 13% in value against the Euro and Yen. This currency risk forces foreign countries higher gas tax accommodating changes in the foreign exchange. The petrodollar system demands huge surplus trade deficit in order to create dollar surpluses too purchase imported oil. The central banks of Japan, China, and South Korea buy US treasuries with their dollars. If Iraq defied the dollar in favor of the Euro, OPEC momentum towards a PetroEuro would be profound and this sudden change could cause a panic selloff of the dollar by foreign central banks and OPEC oil producers. Currently, the US makes a $500-$600 billion interest payment per year with the rest of the world. 70% of the worlds trade is done in dollars. Every country needs a trade deficit to import oil because all international trade is in dollars.
Russia's oil peaked at 12.6 mb/d in 1987 and by 2004 its production had dropped to 9 mb/d. "During the next decade, the USSR may well find itself not only unable to supply oil to Eastern Europe and the West on the prescale, but also having to compete with OPEC for its own use.