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What makes a share in a company valuable ? It is earnings , which provide dividends and its potential appreciation , which gives rise to capital gains . Goldstone modes are the zero - energy infinite - wavelength mode fluctuations that attempt to restore broken symmetry . Value today is equal to its expected value tomorrow discounted by the discount factor . In the bubble component , there is not dividend ! The bubble is playing the role of the Goldstone mode . “The bubble price can wander up or down and , in limit where it becomes very large in absolute value , dominate over the fundamental price , restoring the independence of the price with respect to dividend . ” Goldstone modes appear spontaneous since it has no energy cost , the rational bubble can be spontaneous without any dividend . There is a competition between the increasing growth of the company and the decreasing impact of dividends further in the future due to the effect of the discount factor . The increasing growth of dividends tends to raise price . Dividends are reduced to a risk - adjusted growth rate . When the risk adjusted growth rate becomes equal or larger than the discount rate , the fundamental valuation formula becomes meaningless . The price is the sum of all future presently adjusted dividends . Speculative phases are often stopped by successive increase of the discount rate . 1929 ( 3 . 25% to 6% ) , 1990 in Japan ( 2 . 55 to 6% ) [Learn More...]
Recession will remain soft and interest rates - low . The US has created less reliance on OPEC oil since the 70s . Without the 70s , 10 fold increases in oil prices , interest rates fluctuation will remain within reasonable ranges . Long term forecasts for deflation scenerio are unlikely . Prices will drop to adjust to supply and demand imbalances , but overall inflation will remain moderate . Supply chain sofware will keep inventories small and allow competitive price bargins to be realized . Just in time inventory management will allow companies to keep less products on hand . There will be a rising share of the economy coming from services . All job growth will be in the services sector . Adjustments in the business cycle may cause sales to become soft . In this case , outsourced services will become more attractive . Outsourcing will reduce operational costs while maintaining service quality . The trend of strong foreign investments will continue to remain strong . [Learn More...]
The Law of One price , states that two assets should sell for the same price . If the price differs in two markets , a profitable opportunity arises to sell the asset where it is overpriced and buy where it is under - priced . “Clearly , a noise - free stock market with all information available occupied by fully rational traders of infinite analysis abilities would have a very small trade volume , if any . ” A significant number of traders exhibit rational behavior . Information is incomplete and stock traders have limited abilities with respect to analyzing the available information . The market becomes rational if there are many heterogonous agents working on limited information . Perfectly rational investing won out , not because it was perfect , but because it was useful . “The machinery behind market rationality is that each investor , using the market to serve his or her own self - interest , unwittingly makes prices reflect the investor’s information and analysis . ” The irrationalities should be studied concerning how they aggregate in the complex , long - lasting , repetitive , and subtle environment of the market . [Learn More...]
Customer oriented Strategies : Japanese auto companies are caught between a low cost producer , Hyundai and a high - end producer , Mercedes or BMW . Korea’s Hyundai , Samsung , and Lucky Goldstar produces high volume products , half of what it costs the Japanese . The Japanese are caught in the middle . If you’re a Japanese leader , what do you do ? First , dramatically reduce the content of labor in production and push towards full automation . Examples are Nikon Seiko , Mazak Machinery , and Fujitsu Fanuc . The second way out of the squeeze is to move upmarketet toward higher margin products . Corporate culture and price cutting instincts will work against the move , as low - cost marketing games feel comfortable and predictable . Sometimes getting back to strategy means getting back to a deep understanding of what a product is about . Basics of sound management means looking closely at the customer needs , thinking deeply about a product . [Learn More...]
English mathematician F . P Ramsey proved that compete disorder is impossible . Every large set of numbers , such as an ensemble of financial price series or points or objects , necessarily contains highly regular patterns . The relevant question is then , to figure out how many stars , numbers , or figures are required to guarantee a certain desired pattern . How probable is it to find a certain pattern in a given set ? 50 of the 400 week intervals since 1910 - 1996 were chosen at random . The terms of the fit parameters correspond with three crashes in 1929 , 1962 , and 1987 . “The probability that the log - periodic component results from chance is about or less than one in twenty . ” [Learn More...]
Companies were forced to offer some sort of return that a money market fund might pay or risk having the price of their shares collapse . Collapsing share prices could result in a takeover . Companies became less concerned about how they created money , only that they created money . Selling off portions of the company , borrowing money in the capital markets and then paying it out to stockholders as dividends and using profits to buy back stock , as a practice to keep stock price high . The company matter less than its stock . [Learn More...]
Put options are options to sell a stock or other product at some specified time in the future for a specified price . If you sell a put option , you either have to have the stock , index , or bond on hand , or be prepared to buy it and hand it over when the option is called . [Learn More...]
More business to business networks will be utilized to reduce manufacturing cost . Intelligent agents will seek out the best price , best quality , and availability scenerios . Supply chain software will reduce raw material cost and help identify bargins . As a result more globalization and exchange between countries will take place . [Learn More...]
C=SN[D] - Xe^rtN[D - oVT] where S - the current price of the asset , N - probablity the term in bracket will be worth less than it ought to be , D - Term , X - Strike or exercise price of the option , r - the interest rate , o – asset volatility , T - time until the option expires . [Learn More...]
If you buy a call option , you have a right to buy a specific index , stock , currency , or bond at a prearranged price anytime before that option expires . [Learn More...]

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